In March 2020, the Syrian crisis is entering its ninth year. Victory does not appear to be an ally for anyone. In the foreseeable future, there are no signs of a political solution that could lead to a period of stability. Indeed, the current data indicates that the Syrian problems are getting worse and the societal divisions are deepening, and all parties continue to exchange accusations among themselves, with the state of denial of the Syrian reality in all political, social, economic and humanitarian fields.
There are many facts that must be reaffirmed every time, at least in order to draw general features of the Syrian presentation, this presentation is part of the ongoing conflict, and each party has tried to build it in an incomplete manner, in order to serve its own goals, which separated completely from the general national interest, which has become the present / absent in all the events, it has lost its contents, and has become a slogan under which it hides narrow affiliations and interests of one party or another, and here we will try to focus on the most important facts that can help build a presentation more identical to reality:
1. With the emergence of the second wave of the Arab Spring, especially in Lebanon and Iraq, it is natural for Syrians to agree on the starting point in the presentation of the Syrian event, namely that the protest since 2010 against political regimes that lost their political legitimacy which brought them to power and made them last for decades. Syria is not an exception, but it is a very clear example.
2. The political regime in Syria put itself, compared to its structure and composition, against limited options in the face of popular protests in the Syrian towns and cities, and it did not take the opportunity to conduct dialogue and negotiation, which would have avoided the country slipping back to what it later slipped into after a few months of peaceful protests.
3. The regime and the traditional opposition are aware of the geopolitical complexities surrounding the Syrian geography, whose effects cannot be escaped if the Syrian issue breaks out of its internal trajectory and turns into an armed conflict. However, there has been a slight disregard for making weapons the rule of conflict. The responsibility for this option rests on the regime first, as it is the one that rules and controls the surplus of power and arms, but the bulk of the traditional opposition was not concerned to go to this option, knowing well that this will put it under the mercy of the countries that will finance them with weapons and logistics.
4. The emergence of the first representative of the movement and the opposition, represented by the "National Council", suffered from structural problems and crises in the way of its formation and work, and its expanding, and transforming into the "National Coalition" was not a better experience. It drowned in the differences of internal blocs, and the dominance of the Muslim Brotherhood on the course of its decisions, the main blocs are divided on each other, according to their regional and international loyalties. A few months later, it has lost its connection to what is happening in Syria and the lack of any strategy in dealing with possible scenarios, and to avoid what is bad or the worst scenario.
5. While Syria was going to the worst-case scenario, terrorism emerged, represented by radical Islamic factions and organizations, whose presence has become a major focus away from the content of the Syrian issue, with all parties trying to take advantage of it, directly or indirectly. Syria has, over time, become an arena of a regional and international conflict, where the local actors do not have the power to influence, but the legitimacy of their very existence is derived from their loyalty to their supporters.
6. The presence of extreme forces in the front of the military action of the opposition, reflected negatively on the general Syrians, and not only on the opposition, an international coalition has been formed to fight the terrorism, especially against ISIS, the capital of its alleged Caliphate in Raqqa, and then the cooperation and coordination between the coalition and The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as a result of the battles that lasted for nearly five years, large areas of Upper Mesopotamia were destroyed, without any plans to rebuild, or achieve a state of stability in it, and the American party recently went to the agreement with Turkey , allowing it to launch a military operation, "Spring of Peace," where Turkey invaded a large area of northern of Syria. The results of this invasion have been established through the Russian-Turkish agreements regulating the movement and expansion of the Turkish forces and their Syrian armed groups, which will lead to a change in the demographics and deepening the rift in the Syrian social fabric under a false political title, which is to protect Turkey's national security and to fight the Kurdish separatist tendencies.
In our view, the facts of the Syrian situation, including its implications and complexities, require the establishment of a UN political mechanism, with clear objectives, and resolution 2254 is not sufficient here, but there is a need for international consensus to support the process of political solution, in order to prevent the consolidation of the current data as permanent and irreversible data, particularly in the files of IDPs and refugees, and the demographic change.
The UN mechanism that could help should begin by reducing the number of constraints of a political solution, such as setting a timeframe for the exit of all foreign powers from Syria, and defining a clear concept of the outcome of the political process, including the Syrian constitution, as the course of the Constitutional Commission is full of mines where their explosion can't be avoided without international consensus and pressure.
If we are to conclude here by adding one final fact, concerning the future, that the existence of Syria, its restoration as a state, and the construction of a new social contract will be possible only by the recognition of all parties that the political regime should be a democratic regime, which guarantees the peaceful transfer of power, and provides a just solution to the issues of ethnic minorities, and to adopt a modern civil rights system, and to start the dynamics of development and the economy.